Well, it’s getting down to crunch time for my team in the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League*. Coming into Week 11, I was just a game behind the two leaders of my division, needing to crack the top two to make the playoffs.
Unfortunately, my team threw up a dud, scoring just 80.28 points. It led to a blowout loss to a team that had been 3-7 before facing me. Strong performances from Matt Ryan, MJD, and the unstoppable Dwayne Bowe did me in as Brandon Marshall, Dan Carpenter, Adrian Peterson, and Eli Manning all let me down.
What’s sad is that had I played Ryan Fitzpatrick over Eli and BenJarvus Green-Ellis or Mike Goodson over Adrian Peterson, the matchup would have been much closer. But I do not second guess myself for either choice, especially the Peterson start. He starts every week. Had I decided to get cute and start The Lawfirm over Peterson, it would have been right in this singular instance but still decidedly the wrong move in all but the most myopic of viewpoints. Hopefully you agree.
That’s my philosophy in a nutshell, as I’m sure you’ve realized if you read this site regularly. I harp on it over and over because I don’t think it can be harped on enough. Play your stars until they force your hand.
Adrian Peterson has been very good this year, mostly consistent, and is so explosive that he could score 25 points any week against any defense. A little dip won’t sour me on him, even a two-week dip, nor should it sour you on him.
Marshall, on the other hand, is a totally different story. He’s parlayed a top-10 target total into one measly touchdown. And with Tyler Thigpen looking like a deer in headlights against Chicago, I’m now more worried than before about Marshall’s long-term prospects for this season.
Brandon Marshall has actually been listed as a sit two straight weeks in this column, and both times I was right. Unfortunately, I lack WR depth on my BFL team, so I’ve had to play him. Now that I have Sidney Rice and Vincent Jackson back, perhaps it will light a fire under Marshall’s ass and get him going.
Oh wait, it doesn’t quite work like that, does it?. They aren’t actually teammates and I’m not actually their coach/GM. Anyone else get confused about this by the time Week 12 rolls around?
With that said, let’s just move along now.
Before we delve into the Week 12 start ’em, sit ’em picks, here is a quick note and then a recap of how I did with my Week 11 top-line picks:
- Don’t forget to check out the Text It To The House promotion. It’s the fun, easy weekly game I told you about a couple weeks back. You pick the five players who will have longest plays from scrimmage this week
And now a quick look back at my Week 11 top-line picks:
- Start em hits: Mark Sanchez, Dwayne Bowe, Brandon Pettigrew, Baltimore D
- Start em misses: Felix Jones (damn me for trusting him!!! See!!?? Trust your principles!!!),
- Sit em hits: Jahvid Best, Kellen Winslow, Washington D
- Sit em misses: Matt Ryan, Big Mike Williams (no TD as I predicted, but I have to respect the 6 receptions, 100+ yards)
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Fantasy Football Week 12 Start em, Sit em Projections and Q&A
Note: no teams are on bye in Week 12.
Remember when reading this post that everything is relative. Just because I say “sit Player X” doesn’t mean I’d sit him in all cases. It just means that, in comparison to the general opinion of that player, who likely is not a consensus must-start (because that is who I try to pick for these columns, so that they are useful), I either like him or dislike him more than others.
If you want specific player-to-player comparisons, I’ll be posting my rankings later in this week, which will give you a more clear indication of how I view one guy versus another. This post is meant to provide general guidance on borderline starters and whether I think, generally, they should be in lineups or not.
Fantasy Football Week 12 Start ’em QB: Eli Manning, New York Giants (v Jacksonville)
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I swear that this is not a self-serving/talk-myself-into-confidence pick. Seriously. I promise.
I know that Eli threw up a dud in Week 11, hurt by his three INTs and fumbles. I also know that he is without Steve Smith for another week and that Hakeem Nicks is also now out for a few weeks. And no, I’m not particularly excited about trusting Mario Manningham as the #1 wide receiver.
But…and it’s a big but, consider the following about Eli’s Week 12 opponent:
- The Jaguars are 28th in the league in passing yards allowed per game (264.6).
- The Jags are also 28th in the league in TDs allowed this season (20).
- The Jags are just middle-of-the-pack when it comes to picking passes off (9 in 10 games).
- The Jags are 31st and one of only three teams that allows a passer rating of 100.0+ (103.9)
- Here are the point totals of the Jags’ four road opponents this year: 38, 26, 42, 17 (and that 17 was the Cowboys before Wade Phillips got fired, so it barely counts).
Why am I listing so many stats? Because I want you to understand that even with Smith and Nicks out, Eli is still a solid start in Week 12. Is it mainly matchup? Yes. But who cares? If he’s a top 10 QB in Week 12, you want him in your lineup. I think he will be.
Finally, consider that Colt McCoy probably plays on the offense with the worst outside playmakers in football. Yet he went 17-28 for 241 yards and a TD. Is that great? No. But it’s passable. If that is your floor (and I think for a guy like Manning it is) and you can reasonably expect more, I like those odds.
Eli has thrown at least two TDs in six straights games. I expect that streak to continue. And don’t look now, but Eli plays Washington and Minnesota the next two weeks. If you own him, stick with him despite the injuries to his WRs.
Eli Manning fantasy football Week 12 projection: 250 yards passing, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Other start ’em QBs for Week 12:
- You know what team is tied with Jacksonville giving up 20 TDs this season? The New England Patriots. They play Detroit on Thanksgiving day, and I expect Shaun Hill to toss at least two TDs as he tries to keep up with Tom Brady-Bieber.
- Ben Roethlisberger is a must-start this week, taking on a Buffalo defense that has also given up 20 TD passes this year.
- Joe Flacco has thrown at least two TDs in three of his team’s four home games. He is known as a better player at home than on the road. Against Tampa Bay’s middle-of-the-pack pass D, expect a solid day.
- Matt Cassel has thrown 8 TDs in his last three games. Seattle is in the bottom third of the league against the pass. He’s a sleeper top 10 QB for Week 12. Say it with me now: all hail Dwayne Bowe!
Fantasy Football Week 12 Sit ’em QB: Michael Vick, Philadelphia (at Chicago)
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Who would I rather have for the remainder of the 2010 season – Eli Manning or Michael Vick? Vick, no question. But I’d rather start Eli in Week 12, and it has everything to do with the matchup.
Since I listed out the Jags’ defensive numbers, allow me to do the same with the mighty Chicago Bears D:
- The Bears have given up a league-low 6 TD passes this year while picking of 15 passes (tied for second).
- The Bears are in the top half of the league giving up just 212.4 passing yards per game.
- No team gives up fewer points per game than the Bears (14.6, tied with Green Bay).
Now consider the following stat line:
- 1 passing TD, 0 INTs, 2 rushing TDs
While that is about half of the first quarter for Vick against Washington, it is the cumulative total of Vick’s production in the game before and after that anomalous outburst against the Redskins. Put another way: against the Colts and Giants, two defenses clearly worse than the Bears, Vick produced just 1.5 TDs per game.
Philly may very well win in Week 12, and Vick could end up producing well, especially if the Eagles’ play-making secondary can pick off Jay Cutler and give the offense a short field; but I’ve been burned more than a few times this year playing guys who were going against the Bears.
I think there are 10-12 safer options this week than Vick. He’ll always have huge potential, but I see the risk/reward weighted a little bit more toward the risk in Week 12.
Michael Vick fantasy football Week 12 projection: 220 yards passing, 40 yards rushing, 1 TD (rushing or passing)
Other sit ’em QBs for Week 12:
- Jon Kitna has thrown 3 TDs in back to back weeks. You probably would love to play a guy playing in Thanksgiving Day game to make it more fun. Despite both of those realities, don’t play Kitna. The Saints have given up only 7 passing TDs all year.
- Doubting Josh Freeman hasn’t been very smart this year, yet I’m going to do it in Week 12. Baltimore is tied for 6th giving up only 12 TD passes this year, and Ed Reed is back causing havoc in the secondary. Also, Tampa Bay has gotten throttled by the good teams it has played this year.
- Carson Palmer has thrown 8 TDs over his last four games, yet it should be obvious that he sits against the Jets on Thursday night.
Fantasy Football Week 12 Start ’em RB: Adrian Peterson, Minnesota (at Washington)
Alright look, I know what you’re thinking: hey, wait a minute, Jerod has Eli and AD on his BFL team. He’s just listing them as start ’ems to make himself feel better!
I promise you that’s not the case (or at least not totally the case). And I also promise you that listing Peterson here is not a cop-out. Here are his stat lines the last two weeks:
- at Chicago: 17 carries, 51 yards, 4 receptions, 24 yards, 0 TDs
- v Green Bay: 14 carries, 72 yards, 1 reception, 16 yards, 0 TDs
The glaring stat there is the lack of TD production. For people who drafted Peterson in the top 4 (like me), much more is expected on a weekly basis. I’ve seen a few people getting frustrated with AD, threatening even to bench him, so I want to nip that crazy talk in the bud by naming him my start ’em RB for Week 12.
There are a couple of reasons for this: 1) because AD is as talented a back as there is in the game, and you don’t sit that kind of talent; and 2) because his matchup is stellar in Week 12. Washington gives up the 9th most points in the league (24.5 per game) and also surrenders 131 yards rushing per game. I think AD should be able to do something with that.
If you want more bold start ’em choices at running back, look below (and I’ll even do four “other” picks instead of the usual three to compensate for making the obvious choice here), but just make sure Adrian Peterson is in your lineup this week and every other week he’s the starting running back in Minnesota.
Adrian Peterson fantasy football Week 12 projection: 125 yards rushing, 1 TD, 3 receptions, 30 yards
Other start ’em RBs for Week 12:
- Ahmad Bradshaw definitely needs to be in your lineup in Week 12. Jacksonville is 30th in the league giving up 12 rushing TDs this year. Brandon Jacobs, despite only getting 10 carries the last two weeks, is also a sneaky start. The Giants will lean on the run more with Nicks and Smith out.
- Look, I own BenJarvus Green-Ellis and I’ve been doubting him all year. He’s responded to those doubts with 7 TDs and a 4.3 yard average, including at least 87 yards rushing in three of the last four games. With Detroit 28th in the league in TDs given up (11) and also giving up 130.6 rushing yards per game, Green-Ellis has earned enough trust to be a top-20 back despite the presence of Danny Woodhead and the return of Fred Taylor.
- Shonn Greene has now carried the ball at least 10 times in three straight games, and at least 15 in the last two. This is a trend that I think will continue as the weather worsens. Cincinnati gives up a TD per game. I think Greene gets it this week.
- Jamaal Charles owners are undoubtedly frustrated that Thomas Jones, not Charles, got two TDs in Week 11. Charles still averaged 7.3 yards per carry on 12 carries and had 4 receptions for 38 yards. Charles is a must-start. Just remember that. (And Jones is a solid, but not slam-dunk, start in Week 12 as well.)
Fantasy Football Week 12 Start ’em WR: Sidney Rice, Minnesota (at Washington)
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Seriously! I swear I didn’t pre-plan this to highlight my BFL team in the top-line start/sit picks. It’s just working out that way. And honestly, can you disagree with any of my picks so far?
Here is why I like Sidney Rice a lot this week:
- Brad Childress was fired this week, lifting a huge weight off the Vikings locker room. Leslie Frazier was installed as the head coach, ensuring a smooth transition, and he’s already said that Brett Favre will start in Week 12.
- The matchup is beautiful. Washington gives up 280.1 passing yards per game and has surrendered 18 TD passes in 10 games. Don’t let Week 11 fool you…their decent performance came against the petulant Vince Young and the immortal, um, Rusty Smith (who?).
- Rice got his feet wet against an outstanding Green Bay pass defense and had a respectable 18.7 yard per catch average on three receptions.
Assuming Brett Favre doesn’t retire between now and Sunday (seriously, that would chance this pick), I think this is the week to roll the dice on Sidney Rice. The return could be nice assuming the Vikings offense can get off the ice. And now I will probably pay the price…for using too many words that rhyme with Rice. (I ran out…sorry.)
Understand this: I would not start Rice over proven top-20 WRs, simply because we haven’t seen him produce a big game yet this year. So remember that these picks aren’t blanket picks, just choices I want to highlight because I think they might go against the norms or trends for the week. I probably have more confidence in Sidney than most; hence, his inclusion here.
Sidney Rice fantasy football Week 12 projection: 5 receptions, 90 yards, 1 TD
Head over to MSF Fantasy Sports to see why I had a near-meltdown about picking two Vikings as “start ’em”, as well as my sit ’em RB and WR, along with my Week 12 start em, sit em picks at TE and Defense.
Commenting is turned off here, but head over to MSF Fantasy Sports to ask your team-specific questions in the comment section of any post.
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* – The P&G Blogger Fantasy League (BFL) is a group of 12 digital sports influencers competing on the NFL.com fantasy platform for the chance to win P&G product, a donation to a local charity, and a trip to Super Bowl XLV, all furnished by P&G. The NFL Entities have not offered or sponsored the sweepstakes in any way.
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